Evaluation of Fire Models for Nuclear Plant Fire Safety and Risk Analysis, Deytec, Inc. USA Technical Report No. 2009-05, December 2009 - Full Report
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Abstract
This report presents the results of an evaluation of fire models for nuclear plant fire safety and risk analysis conducted as part of the International Collaborative Fire Model Project (ICFMP) by the author. The main objective of this report, which follows several detailed technical reports by the author on benchmark exercises conducted in the ICFMP, is to highlight the current limitations of fire models for nuclear plant applications. This report presents the results of blind, unbiased analyses that were conducted to derive the true errors in model predictions. Such analyses and presentations are rare in the fire modeling literature. The analyses indicate that fire models at the present are severely limited in
predicting parameters of major interest in nuclear plant fire safety and risk analysis. Erroneous decisions leading to unsafe nuclear plant conditions will result if the fire model limitations presented in this report are not considered in fire safety decision making. Bounding calculations with the fire models can still be conducted, as long as the limitations of the models are acknowledged, understood and taken into account. Research and improvement programs should be developed to overcome these limitations so that fire models become a reliable and more useful tool for nuclear plant fire safety
analysis.
Report: 72 pages.
This report presents the results of an evaluation of fire models for nuclear plant fire safety and risk analysis conducted as part of the International Collaborative Fire Model Project (ICFMP) by the author. The main objective of this report, which follows several detailed technical reports by the author on benchmark exercises conducted in the ICFMP, is to highlight the current limitations of fire models for nuclear plant applications. This report presents the results of blind, unbiased analyses that were conducted to derive the true errors in model predictions. Such analyses and presentations are rare in the fire modeling literature. The analyses indicate that fire models at the present are severely limited in
predicting parameters of major interest in nuclear plant fire safety and risk analysis. Erroneous decisions leading to unsafe nuclear plant conditions will result if the fire model limitations presented in this report are not considered in fire safety decision making. Bounding calculations with the fire models can still be conducted, as long as the limitations of the models are acknowledged, understood and taken into account. Research and improvement programs should be developed to overcome these limitations so that fire models become a reliable and more useful tool for nuclear plant fire safety
analysis.
Report: 72 pages.